Though it’s an off year in election terms, 2025 will pack a considerable punch within the scope of South Dakota politics.
The drama begins in January, when Gov. Kristi Noem is scheduled to begin committee hearings in Washington after being appointed as secretary of the Department of Homeland Security by incoming President Donald Trump, whose inauguration is Jan. 20.
Noem’s proposed executive branch role is just part of South Dakota’s influence in the nation’s capital. Sen. John Thune was chosen by his Republican colleagues as Senate Majority Leader in November, and Rep. Dusty Johnson has emerged as a close adviser to Speaker Mike Johnson in the House of Representatives.
In Pierre, the surging populist GOP wing assumes control of legislative leadership as Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden prepares to take the reins from Noem in a challenging budget year, with the session starting Jan. 14.
Amid this backdrop, candidates will start plotting for 2026, when South Dakota will elect a new governor as well as hold races for U.S. Senate and U.S. House and constitutional offices such as attorney general, secretary of state and state treasurer.
Here’s a quick rundown of what to expect as a jam-packed political year begins: Noem fast-tracked as Homeland Secretary Noem’s appointment to Homeland Security is considered high-priority by the Trump administration as it seeks to hit the ground running on proposed immigration reforms.
The South Dakota governor’s confirmation timeline is right behind Trump’s choices for Secretary of Defense (Pete Hegseth) and Secretary of State (Marco Rubio), with those national security picks expected to have committee hearings the week starting Jan. 13.
Noem has met with members of the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, which is chaired by Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and will consider her nomination.
She cannot be formally nominated until Trump is sworn in Jan. 20, and the committee can’t vote until that occurs. So the earliest that her appointment can be confirmed by the committee and sent to the full Senate is likely Jan. 21 or 22.
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, which means they can lose three GOP votes and still pass measures or appointees, with Vice Presidentelect J.D. Vance breaking ties.
If Noem survives, as most expect, Trump's team wants her to be publicly active out of the gate, which likely means a trip to the Southern border to stress a crackdown on illegal immigration.
As a member of the House, Dusty Johnson is not involved in the confirmation process. But he told News Watch that he’s confident South Dakota’s governor will hold up under the “advise and consent” scrutiny of the Senate.
“There are certainly some appointments that are more controversial in nature,' Johnson said. '(Noem) is a pretty straightforward, traditional, conservative pick, and I would think she's in excellent shape. She knows how to make decisions and doesn't get scared at the prospect of making a tough call.'
Thune bolsters relationship with Trump
Thune is settling into his role as Senate majority leader, a job he apprenticed for while serving as a right-hand man for former longtime Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who remains in the Senate.
One of Thune's biggest challenges will be managing the demands and expectations of Trump, who has called for quick action from Senate Republicans on confirming Cabinet posts and getting in step with White House prerogatives.
Thune would prefer to insulate the Senate from such pressure under the constitutional balance of power. That wish was granted in December, when 38 GOP senators voted against Trump’s preferred bill to extend government funding while also suspending the debt limit for two years, which would have eased the path for White House priorities such as border spending and tax cuts.
Congress later passed a temporary funding bill that did not address the debtceiling,despiteTrump saying on social media that he would support primary challenges against Republicans who opposed his wishes.
Thune's rocky relationship with Trump, dating back to the 2016 presidential campaign and inflamed by the U.S. Capitol riot of Jan. 6, 2021, has seen signs of recent repair.
Thune and Trump were seen hanging out together in a private suite at the Army-Navy football game on Dec. 14, and Thune also visited the President-elect at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida recently to discuss legislative strategy.
Johnson rises in House stature, eyes 2026
Though the 2026 primary for South Dakota governor is still 18 months away, the race has been bubbling beneath the surface for months.
Dusty Johnson has been the most active among potential contenders, building a campaign war chest of more than $5.5 million while wrangling top-level South Dakota donors in anticipation of a race that could begin as early as spring 2025.
Other likely candidates include Rhoden and Attorney General Marty Jackley as well as a contender from the populist wing, with state Rep. Scott Odenbach of Spearfish mentioned frequently after recently being named House majority leader.
Odenbach worked closely with Speaker of the House Jon Hansen of Dell Rapids to bolster antiabortion and landowner rights initiatives while urging the ouster of “establishment” legislative incumbents in the 2024 election, all of which were successful efforts.
Jackley, who saw Noem run to the right in defeating him for the 2018 gubernatorial nomination, is determined to better position himself this time. He has assembled volunteer campaign staff for whether he runs for governor or attorney general in 2026, showcasing hardline stances against illegal immigration, abortion and gun control.
Rhoden prepares to take reins in Pierre
One of the state's biggest political stories in 2025 could be the ascension of Rhoden, who will likely become the first South Dakota governor to assume office in the middle of a legislative session in Pierre.
The 65-year-old Meade County rancher is already sizing up a Legislature fraught with budgetary battles and potential Republican infighting. The 2024 election was a triumph for limited government populists, who seized leadership roles and will test the remaining influence of pro-business institutionalists when it comes to pipelines, prison projects and property tax.
Rhoden, a legislative veteran who ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 2014, will have ample opportunity to prove his political dexterity in the current GOP environment, setting the tone for a potential reelection bid.
This story was produced by South Dakota News Watch, an independent, nonprofit news organization. Read more in-depth stories at sdnewswatch.org and sign up for an email every few days to get stories as soon as they're published. Contact investigative reporter Stu Whitney at stu.whitney@sdnewswatch.org.